Turning Data Complexity into Clarity

In today’s data-driven world, making informed decisions starts with understanding each client’s business, objectives, and unique needs. Recently, we were asked to evaluate the potential of The Villages, a 32-square-mile area in central Florida consisting of 17 special districts of adult communities. As one of the fastest-growing metro areas in the U.S., The Villages is home to nearly 150,000 people.

To assess the growth of this market, we leveraged detailed psychographic and demographic insights to help retailers identify opportunities in this affluent, retirement-oriented region. The data revealed that, while The Villages has a lower population density compared to other Floridian MSAs, its higher growth rate signals significant retail potential. However, it’s important to consider these insights within the broader market context and not in isolation.

We also used psychographic data, such as PersonaLive, to analyze shopping patterns, social media interests, and brand engagement. A significant 52% of households fell into the Snowbird Set segment—a population that migrates seasonally to Florida from regions like Canada and the Northeast.

This Snowbird Set, typically retired couples, exhibited strong brand loyalty, frequently visiting retailers such as Edwin Watts Golf Shop, US Eye, and Scooter’s Coffee. Their social media activity focused on travel, grocery, and home-related content, further reinforcing their consumer behavior patterns in the area.

Today, we have powerful tools that allow us to delve deeper into consumer behavior

• Retail Landscape
  Analyzing the retail landscape of The Villages revealed chain growth of 11% over the past year, outperforming the state average of 5%. Visitation to the 16 shopping centers within the main retail corridor had also seen healthy growth, with 2023 numbers surpassing pre-COVID levels. With 174 homes/sq mi planned for development, this trend was expected to continue, indicating a strong and growing retail environment.
• Sales Performance and Brand Affinity
  Sales data for existing chains helped identify top-performing locations and the factors contributing to their success. For example, the high-performing Starbucks pointed to a strong coffee culture, which other chains can leverage. Understanding brand affinity within the community was crucial for tailoring concepts to meet local demand.
• Gap Analysis and Community Synergy
  By conducting a gap analysis, it was possible to pinpoint underserved categories, such as specialty stores or fitness centers, and identify opportunity zones where demand exceeded supply. Additionally, considering community desires and tenant synergy—like placing a coffee shop near a fitness center—can create a more cohesive and successful retail experience.

Our proprietary predictive modeling and advanced analytics allow us to forecast trends by analyzing factors such as population growth, housing developments, and economic shifts. In addition, our retail experts, who live, shop, and work in these communities, provide invaluable local insights. We then run scenario tests to help our clients evaluate different site options and potential outcomes, ensuring their strategy aligns with both community needs and market trends.